Kavanaugh Will Be Confirmed, Sooner or Later (and Later Might Be Better)

As Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers might say to nervous supporters of embattled Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, RELAX, he’s going to be confirmed sooner or later.

As a condition of moving Kavanaugh’s nomination out of the Senate Judiciary Committee and on to the full Senate for a confirmation vote, Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ) demanded from the White House and received a commitment for a new FBI investigation into alleged Kavanaugh sexual misconduct – limited in time (one week) and scope (existing credible allegations).

In my opinion, the FBI will find nothing to substantiate the flimsy accusations of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez. Ford’s allegations are already falling apart; the questioner at the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings, sex crime expert Rachel Mitchell, released a memo poking holes in Ford’s story. As for Ramirez’ accusation of indecent exposure, even the New York Times – hardly a friend of Trump’s and by extension Kavanaugh – could find no evidence to corroborate the Boulder liberal activist’s claims.

When the FBI report comes in, the Senate should quickly close debate and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) should call for a vote. Republicans currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate. If the Republican hold together with zero or one defectors, Kavanaugh will be confirmed and a few red-state senators in tight re-election battles will join the Republicans. A great victory.

But suppose two or even three squeamish Republican Senators vote “no.” Senate Democrats – as disciplined a lot as you’ll find – will vote as a block to deny Kavanaugh a seat and he will be denied. Republican and fair-minded voters everywhere will be outraged at the Democrats’ dirty tricks and the betrayal by the two or three Republicans.

So, will that be the end of Kavanaugh’s candidacy? I don’t think so. Trump is a fighter. Instead of nominating the next person on the list, I think Trump will announce that if the voters in the November mid-terms increase the Republicans’ majority, he will re-nominate Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court. The new Senate will schedule a vote the first chance they have in January, 2019. Currently, I think the Republicans are favored to pick up one to three seats. But all the Democrat Senators in red states carried by Trump such as Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Claire McCaskill (MO), Joe Donnelly (IN), and Jon Tester (MT) will have voted “no.” Each of their Republican opponents will all campaign on being the “51st vote” for confirmation, aided by a rampaging, campaigning Trump himself. The red state Democrats would be trapped. Instead of losing 1-3 seats, I think they would lose 4-6. Squishy Republicans like Susan Collins (ME) and Lisa Murkowski (AK) would lose their influence to block nominations or legislation.

A narrow, early October Senate rejection of Kavanaugh might not be the worst thing from a Republican perspective. In fact, it might be the best.